DOI: 10.32702/2306-6806.2019.10.14
УДК: 338.24.01
С. В. Козловський, Г. Ф. Мазур, А. В. Непиталюк
ДЕМОГРАФІЧНА СТІЙКІСТЬ СУСПІЛЬСТВА ЯК ОСНОВА ЕКОНОМІЧНОГО РОЗВИТКУ
Анотація
У статті проаналізовано вплив змін чисельності та структури населення, спричинених природним та механічним рухом, на масштаби національного виробництва. Охарактеризовано зазначені взаємозалежності з огляду на необхідність поліпшення системи публічного адміністрування та підвищення рівня громадського добробуту. Обгрунтовано необхідність інтродукції категорії демографічної стійкості до національної макроекономічної стратегії. Досліджено, систематизовано та розвинуто теоретико-методологічні підходи до визначення категорії демографічної стійкості та окреслено її роль у акселерації процесів ендогенного економічного зростання в умовах глобалізації. Доведено, що на зміну обсягу ВВП чинить вплив множина природних (загальна чисельність та щільність населення, частка економічно активного населення у загальній структурі, рівні народжуваності та смертності, середня очікувана тривалість життя тощо) та механічних (характер і динаміка міграції, рівень кваліфікації мігрантів тощо) факторів. Визначено, що досягнення стійкого і прогнозованого стану соціального середовища та інтеграція демографічних змінних до моделі виробничої функції має підвищити результативність національного виробництва.
Ключові слова: демографічна структура; демографічна стійкість; економічне зростання; економічна стратегія; економічна стійкість.
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S. Kozlovskyi, H. Mazur, A. Nepytaliuk
DEMOGRAPHIC SUSTAINABILITY AS THE BASIS FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Summary
Both natural and migration processes' effect on the population's size and structure — determining the scale of public production — are analyzed. The nature of those interrelations — considering the constant need to improve the system of public administration and to increase the social welfare as well — is characterized. It is argued that national macroeconomic strategy should be designed, regarding the introduction of demographic sustainability as the basic category to ensure endogenous economic growth. Both the theoretical and methodological determination approaches to the category of demographic sustainability are analyzed, systematized and developed. Demographic sustainability's role in the economic growth processes' acceleration under conditions of globalization is outlined. It is proved that the GDP's dynamics is influenced by the plurality of natural (total population and population density, specific weight of economically active population, fertility and mortality rates, average life expectancy, etc.) and mechanical (character and dynamics of migration, level of migrants' qualifications etc.) factors. The national production's efficiency could be enhanced by the achievement of the social environment's sustainable and predictable state and by the integration of demographic variables into the production function's model as well. Demographic sustainability is defined as the society's ability to automatically support and, using implicit compensators, to restore its own structure in the context of social stratification, regarding a number of significant parameters, including the economic activity level as well as educational, professional and competent training; demographic sustainability optimizes the production proportions of intellectual and physical capital, provides intensification and continuity of production, and increases the social welfare as well. To achieve the sustainability, the coordination of social, fiscal, migration, and cultural policies is required. Moreover, there is a constant need to improve the methods for demographic sustainability assessment.
Keywords: demographic structure; demographic sustainability; economy growth; economic strategy; economic sustainability.
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№ 10 2019, стор. 14 - 19
Дата публікації: 2019-10-31
Кількість переглядів: 1112
